Birchtech Corp — U.S. Water Treatment Market Sizing Report

Part 1

Birchtech Water Treatment Business — Structure & Market Map

The diagram below shows how Birchtech’s two labs, two media products, and contaminant coverage connect to form a vertically integrated water treatment business. Each box shows the estimated annual U.S. addressable market for that segment.

Birchtech Corp. — Water Treatment Business Architecture

All figures are Birchtech’s addressable U.S. market — the portion Birchtech can capture through media supply and services. Contaminant row shows what is treated, not separate market sizes. Full workings in Parts 4–7.

Water Treatment Solutions — Total U.S. Addressable Market

$965M – $1.39B per year

Across RSSCT services, rjGAC rejuvenation, GAC media supply, IXR media supply, and non-PFAS contaminant treatment. Full breakdown in Part 9.

Part 2

The Regulatory Catalyst — EPA PFAS Drinking Water Rule

Every market size in this document traces back to a single regulatory event: the EPA’s PFAS National Primary Drinking Water Regulation (NPDWR), finalized April 10, 2024. This was the first new Maximum Contaminant Level set by the EPA for any chemical in drinking water in over 25 years. It creates the compliance obligation that forces U.S. water systems to install treatment — which is what Birchtech sells.

What the Rule Requires

Parameter	Standard	Status (March 2026)
PFOA	MCL: 4 ppt \| MCLG: Zero	✓ RETAINED — Enforceable
PFOS	MCL: 4 ppt \| MCLG: Zero	✓ RETAINED — Enforceable
PFHxS, PFNA, GenX	MCL: 10 ppt each	Under review — may be rescinded
Hazard Index	Mixture of 4 PFAS	Under review — may be rescinded
Monitoring	All 66,000+ public water systems	Complete by 2027
Treatment compliance	Originally 2029	Proposed extension to 2031

[R1] EPA — PFAS NPDWR (Final Rule, April 10, 2024)
epa.gov/sdwa/and-polyfluoroalkyl-substances-pfas

Sets MCLs for six PFAS. Over 66,000 public water systems subject to the rule. Approved treatment: GAC, ion exchange, reverse osmosis.

[R2] EPA — May 14, 2025 Announcement
epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-announces-it-will-keep-maximum-contaminant-levels-pfoa-pfos

Retains PFOA/PFOS MCLs. Proposes extending compliance to 2031. Intends to rescind MCLs for 4 other PFAS. PFOA/PFOS defended in ongoing litigation.

[R3] U.S. GAO — GAO-25-107897 (July 30, 2025)
gao.gov/products/gao-25-107897

Independent review of EPA’s PFAS cost analysis. Confirms EPA followed SDWA requirements. Notes litigation ongoing as of July 2025.

EPA-Approved Treatment Technologies

Birchtech covers 2 of the 3 EPA-approved BATs:
1. Granular Activated Carbon (GAC) — Birchtech supplies GAC & rejuvenates spent GAC (PA Lab)
2. PFAS-Selective Ion Exchange (IX) — Birchtech’s SEA-IX™ resins
3. Reverse Osmosis / Nanofiltration — Not a Birchtech offering

[R4] EPA — BAT Evaluation (EPA-815R24011)
epa.gov — 2024-final-pfas-bat-ssct_final-508.pdf

Evaluates GAC, IX, and RO/NF. Confirms all three as affordable BATs for all system sizes.

[R5] EPA — Technologies & Costs for PFAS Removal (EPA-815R24012, 200pp)
epa.gov — 2024-pfas-tech-cost_final-508.pdf

WBS cost models, bed life estimates, full-scale data. Contains Figures 7-1/7-2 (GAC cost curves) and 7-3 (IX cost curves). Key reference for all cost calculations in this document.

[R6] EPA — Treatment Options Fact Sheet
epa.gov — pfas-npdwr_fact-sheet_treatment_4.8.24.pdf

States: “Treatment technologies that remove PFAS from drinking water produce PFAS containing materials that eventually must be disposed of when they are exhausted or are not reactivated or regenerated.” Directly creates market for Birchtech’s rjGAC.

Part 3

Input 1: How Many U.S. Water Systems Need PFAS Treatment

This is the core demand input for every market calculation in Parts 4–8. Two authoritative sources provide the range:

66,000+

Public water systems subject to PFAS rule (must monitor)

EPA NPDWR [R1]

4,100–6,700

Systems needing treatment action (install treatment or new source)

EPA Cost-Benefit [S1]

7,000+

Entry points needing capital improvement

AWWA/B&V [S2]

83–105M

People served by affected systems

EPA Cost-Benefit [S1]

[S1] EPA — Benefits and Costs Fact Sheet (April 2024)
epa.gov — pfas-npdwr_fact-sheet_cost-and-benefits_4.8.24.pdf

Exact text: “The EPA estimates 4,100 – 6,700 public water systems serving 83 - 105 million people will be required to take action.” Annual cost: ~$1.548 billion.

[S2] AWWA / Black & Veatch — Updated PFAS Cost Estimate (August 2024)
asdwa.org/2024/08/02/awwa-releases-updated-national-pfas-cost-estimate

Using EPA UCMR 5 data: “More than 7,000 entry points will need capital improvement investments...totaling $37.1 to $48.3 billion in the next five years.” Annualized: $2.7–$3.5B/yr — ~2× EPA estimate.

PFAS Compliance Cost Estimates — All Authoritative Sources

Source	Estimate	Scope	Date	Link
EPA (Annual)	$1.548B/year	Annual compliance (monitoring + treatment + disposal)	Apr 2024	EPA PDF
EPA (Capital)	$14.4 billion	Initial nationwide capital costs	Apr 2024	Meyers Nave
AWWA / B&V	$37.1–$48.3B	Capital, 7,000+ entry pts, 5 years	Aug 2024	ASDWA
AWWA (Annual)	$2.7–$3.5B/yr	Capital + O&M	Aug 2024	The Driller
NACWA	>$3.5B/yr	Treatment + disposal	2024	NARC
American Water	$47 billion	Total U.S. PFAS infra at 4 ppt	Nov 2023	Meyers Nave (CNBC)
Milliman	$120–$175B	Total remediation, all systems	2024	Smart Water Mag
Bluefield Research	$13.5 billion	Utility PFAS retrofits 2023–2030, primarily GAC	2024	Bluefield
3M Settlement	$10.3–$12.5B	Utility remediation, 13 years	Apr 2024	NRDC
DuPont Settlement	$1.185B	Utility remediation	Apr 2024	NRDC
IIJA Funding	$9 billion	Federal PFAS/EC funds	2021	EPA
DoD PFAS Cleanup (future)	$9.3 billion	Future investigation & cleanup, 718 installations	Feb 2025	GAO-25-107401
DoD PFAS (spent to date)	$2.6 billion	Spent since 2017 on PFAS releases	Feb 2025	GAO-25-107401
DoD FY2025 PFAS Request	$853.2 million	O&M + ERA + RDT&E for PFAS activities	2025	DoD Budget Justification

Scale of Contamination

~45%

of U.S. tap water contains ≥1 PFAS

USGS (Jul 2023) [S4]

71–95M

Americans on PFAS-contaminated groundwater

USGS (Oct 2024) [S5]

176M

In communities with PFAS-positive water

EWG (Mar 2026) [S6]

9,728

Confirmed PFAS sites, all 50 states

EWG (Mar 2026) [S6]

[S4] USGS — Tap Water PFAS Study (Smalling et al., July 2023)
usgs.gov — Tap Water Study

716 locations tested. ≥45% of U.S. tap water contains PFAS. Concentrations similar in public supplies and private wells.

[S5] USGS — PFAS Groundwater Model (Tokranov et al., Oct 2024)
usgs.gov — PFAS Groundwater Model

Published in Science Advances. 71–95 million people may rely on PFAS-contaminated groundwater. First national estimate.

[S6] EWG — PFAS Contamination Map (updated March 2026)
ewg.org/interactive-maps/pfas_contamination

9,728 sites across all 50 states. 176 million Americans in affected communities. Based on ~95% of UCMR 5 results.

[S7] EPA — 7th DWINSA (September 2023)
epa.gov/dwsrf — 7th DWINSA

$625 billion total U.S. drinking water infrastructure need over 20 years. Treatment alone: $107B. Prepared BEFORE PFAS rule — does not include PFAS costs.

Part 4

SERVICE — RSSCT Design Center (ND Lab): Full Market Sizing

What This Is

Rapid Small-Scale Column Testing (RSSCT) is a laboratory methodology that uses small columns to simulate full-scale GAC and ion exchange treatment performance. It allows a utility to evaluate which media — GAC vs. IXR vs. hybrid — will work best for their specific water quality and contaminant mix before committing millions in capital. Birchtech operates an RSSCT Design Center in Grand Forks, North Dakota.

Per Birchtech SEC S-1 Filing: The Design Centers “represent the only known facilities that have integrated capability in North America to thermally reactivate spent GAC under controlled conditions and subsequently conduct RSSCTs to directly compare reactivated GAC performance against virgin carbon counterparts.”

[B1] Birchtech — SEC S-1 Filing (Design Center description)
sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000728385/000110465926003397/tmb-20250930xs1.htm

Two state-of-the-art labs (PA + ND). Integrated RSSCT + thermal reactivation. Only known such capability in North America.

[B2] Birchtech — Shareholder Letter (March 3, 2026)
globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/03/03/3248379

“We are currently engaged in multiple municipal and institutional pilot programs, including RSSCT projects at university systems that could convert into multi-year carbon supply opportunities beginning in 2027. With more than 500 public universities across our initial target regions, we see substantial addressable demand.”

[B3] Birchtech — Commercialization PR (October 6, 2025)
globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/10/06/3161724

First $0.9M purchase orders. “Birchtech’s commercialization is supported by its RSSCT Design Center.” Confirms RSSCT → media supply pipeline.

Market Sizing Calculation — Full Working

▿ Important Note: There is no standalone “RSSCT market” tracked by any research firm. RSSCT is an engineering service embedded within the water treatment design process. The market size below is a bottom-up calculation. The EPA’s PFAS Tech Cost document (EPA-815R24012) references RSSCT as the standard pre-design evaluation method for GAC systems. The AWWA PFAS compliance framework also references RSSCT.

Step A — Establish How Many Systems Will Need RSSCT

Not every system that installs treatment will commission a site-specific RSSCT study. Larger and more complex systems will; smaller systems may use standardized designs or vendor-recommended configurations. The question is: what percentage of the 4,100–6,700 systems needing treatment (EPA [S1]) will require RSSCT?

Factors supporting high RSSCT adoption:

EPA BAT document [R4] states treatment effectiveness depends on site-specific water quality (TOC, competing anions, pH)
GAC bed life varies dramatically by water source (EPA [R5] Table 2-6: PFOS bed life ranges from 7,400 to 120,000 bed volumes)
AWWA comments [S3] note that “lead times for key equipment (vessels, GAC media, IX resin) have already increased to beyond twelve months” — making pre-design testing critical to avoid costly mistakes
The EPA WBS cost models themselves include pilot study costs as a line item

Factors limiting RSSCT adoption:

Very small systems (<500 people) may use POU/POE treatment instead of centralized GAC/IX
Some systems will choose non-treatment alternatives (new wells, interconnection)
Vendor-bundled designs may bypass independent RSSCT

Calculation — RSSCT Demand (Step A) Systems needing treatment action (EPA [S1]):               4,100 – 6,700

Minus very small systems using POU/POE (~15%):           −615 to −1,005
Minus systems choosing non-treatment options (~10%):     −410 to −670
= Systems installing centralized GAC or IX:                 ~3,075 – 5,025

× Percentage requiring site-specific RSSCT:                × 40% – 60%

Low: 3,075 × 40% = 1,230 RSSCT engagements
High: 5,025 × 60% = 3,015 RSSCT engagements

~1,200 – 3,000 RSSCT engagements needed over compliance period

▿ Assumption Flag: The 40–60% RSSCT adoption rate is an engineering estimate. The EPA BAT document confirms site-specific evaluation is needed, and AWWA references RSSCT as standard, but the exact adoption percentage is not published. Vendor confirmation recommended.

Step B — Establish Revenue Per RSSCT Engagement

An RSSCT engagement typically includes: water quality characterization, column setup and media procurement, multi-week testing runs (4–12 weeks), data analysis, and a final report with media selection recommendation and design parameters. Industry pricing varies by scope:

RSSCT Scope	Typical Price Range	What’s Included
Basic single-media test	$10,000 – $20,000	One GAC type, standard run, basic report
Standard comparison	$20,000 – $35,000	2–3 media types, full breakthrough curves, design recommendation
Comprehensive multi-media	$35,000 – $60,000	GAC vs. IXR vs. hybrid, extended run, detailed engineering report

▿ RSSCT Pricing Sources: The EPA WBS GAC cost model explicitly includes “pilot studies” as an add-on cost line item in its treatment cost estimation framework (EPA WBS Models). SAMCO Technologies publishes treatability study pricing: $2,500–$5,000 for simple tests, $9,000–$10,000 for complex tests, $30,000+ for extensive analytical studies (samcotech.com). RSSCT is a specialized multi-week column test more complex than standard treatability — placing it in the $10K–$60K range. Carollo Engineers has conducted 40+ RSSCTs through Water ARC® (carollo.com). PFASolutions.org and EPS Labs (epslabs.com) also offer commercial RSSCT services. No provider publishes exact per-test pricing. $10K–$60K is an engineering estimate calibrated against published treatability ranges.

Calculation — RSSCT Revenue (Step B) RSSCT engagements over compliance period: 1,200 – 3,000
Compliance period (monitoring + treatment): ~5–7 years (2027–2031/33)

Using mid-range engagement price of $25,000:

Low: 1,200 × $25,000 = $30,000,000 over 6 years = $5M/year
High: 3,000 × $25,000 = $75,000,000 over 5 years = $15M/year

U.S. RSSCT services market: ~$30M–$75M cumulative over compliance period
Annualized: ~$5M – $15M per year

Step C — The Strategic Value Beyond Fee Revenue

The RSSCT fee revenue ($5–15M/yr) understates the strategic value. Each RSSCT engagement is a gateway to recurring media supply contracts. Per Birchtech’s shareholder letter [B2]: RSSCT projects “could convert into multi-year carbon supply opportunities beginning in 2027.” If even 30% of RSSCT clients become GAC/IXR supply customers, and the average annual media contract is $50K–$200K/year, the downstream revenue dwarfs the testing fee.

Downstream Revenue Estimate (Illustrative Only) RSSCT engagements that convert to supply: ~30% of 1,200–3,000 = 360–900
× Average annual media contract value: × $50,000–$200,000/year

Low: 360 × $50,000 = $18M/year in recurring media revenue
High: 900 × $200,000 = $180M/year in recurring media revenue

Potential downstream media revenue: $18M–$180M/year (wide range — illustrative)

▿ Assumption Flag: The downstream conversion and contract values are company estimates for illustrative purposes. These should NOT be cited as market sizes in any public communication. They show the strategic logic, not a hard market number.

Part 5

SERVICE — rjGAC Carbon Rejuvenation™ (PA Lab): Full Market Sizing

What This Is

When GAC becomes saturated with any contaminant — PFAS, VOCs, mercury, THMs, taste/odor, or any other adsorbate — it must be either disposed of or thermally reactivated. GAC reactivation has been standard water treatment practice for decades, long before PFAS. Birchtech’s Carbon Rejuvenation™ process thermally rejuvenates spent GAC while destroying all adsorbed contaminants. Facility construction planned 2026, online late 2027.

This is NOT a PFAS-only market. Thousands of U.S. water utilities have been reactivating GAC for VOCs, THMs, taste/odor, and mercury for 30+ years. PFAS compliance is adding massive new volume on top of this existing base. Per industry data, North America reactivates over 150,000 tons of spent GAC annually across all contaminant applications. Virgin GAC costs $2,000–$3,500/ton; reactivated GAC costs $1,200–$1,800/ton — a 40–60% savings that drives adoption.

[R7] EPA — PFAS NPDWR Technical Overview for Utilities
epa.gov — Technical Overview PDF

Confirms GAC reactivation as standard practice. Spent GAC must be “disposed of when exhausted or not reactivated or regenerated.”

[B4] Birchtech — Shareholder Letter (rjGAC Facility)
globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/03/03/3248379

“In 2026, we plan to begin construction of our first GAC rejuvenation facility...expected to come online as early as late 2027. This initiative has the potential to create a vertically integrated, recurring revenue model combining supply, regeneration, and service.”

Market Sizing Calculation — Full Working

Step A — How Much Spent GAC Is Generated Annually in the U.S.

GAC reactivation serves all water treatment applications — not just PFAS. Utilities have been sending spent GAC for thermal reactivation for decades to treat VOCs, THMs, taste/odor, mercury, and other contaminants. PFAS compliance is now adding significant new volume on top of this existing base.

[S10] Industry Data — N.A. GAC Reactivation Volume
carbonyihang.com — GAC Reactivation Industry Analysis (2025)

“Across North America, businesses are doing this on a massive scale — somewhere north of 150,000 tons of used carbon gets pulled back into circulation annually rather than ending up buried underground.” Also confirms: reactivation restores 70–90% of adsorption capacity; saves 40–60% vs. virgin GAC.

[S10b] Wiley — Destruction of PFAS During Thermal Reactivation of GAC (Mayerberger, 2025)
onlinelibrary.wiley.com — Remediation Journal (Aug 2025)

Full-scale study at potable-classed reactivation facility. ~150,000 lbs per trial of PFAS-laden spent GAC from municipal utilities near Air Force bases. Confirms PFAS destruction removal efficiency at production rates.

[S10c] Calgon Carbon / American Water — 9-Year Exclusive Contract (Jan 2025)
polarismarketresearch.com — U.S. AC Market (citing announcement)

“Calgon Carbon Corporation and American Water...nine-year exclusive supply contract for granular activated carbon, equipment, and reactivation services at more than 50 American Water sites in ten states.”

[R5] EPA — Technologies & Costs for PFAS Removal (EPA-815R24012)
epa.gov — 2024-pfas-tech-cost_final-508.pdf

Confirms reactivation as standard practice: “The most likely management option for spent GAC containing adsorbed PFAS is reactivation. There are a number of GAC vendor-operated reactivation facilities available.”

Step B — Establish Reactivation Pricing

Item	Price Range	Source
Virgin GAC (new)	$2,000 – $3,500 per ton	Industry pricing (multiple AC suppliers)
Reactivated GAC	$1,200 – $1,800 per ton	Industry data [S10]; ~40–60% savings vs. virgin
Cost savings from reactivation	40% – 60%	EPA [R5], industry [S10], Water & Wastewater journal

Step C — Calculate the U.S. Reactivation Market

Calculation — U.S. GAC Reactivation Market (All Contaminants) N.A. annual GAC reactivation volume:                   150,000+ tons/year [S10]
U.S. share of N.A. (~85%):                               ~127,500 tons/year

Reactivation price per ton:                               $1,200 – $1,800/ton

Low: 127,500 × $1,200 = $153,000,000
High: 127,500 × $1,800 = $229,500,000

U.S. GAC reactivation market (all contaminants): ~$150M – $230M/year

▿ Assumption Flags:
• 150,000+ tons N.A. volume: sourced from industry analysis, not a government figure. Cross-checked against global reactivated AC market ($1.1B globally, U.S. at 25–30% = $275M–$330M total reactivated AC). Water treatment is ~55–70% of reactivated AC applications, giving $150M–$230M — consistent.
• $1,200–$1,800/ton reactivation pricing: widely cited across multiple industry sources. Confirmed by EPA as standard alternative to virgin GAC at $2,000–$3,500/ton.
• 85% U.S. share of N.A.: based on relative water infrastructure spending. Canada ~15%.

Step D — Cross-Check from Global Reactivated Carbon Market

Cross-Check — Top-Down from Global Data Global reactivated/recycled AC market (2024):           ~$1.1 billion
Projected by 2033:                                        ~$2.78 billion (11% CAGR)
Source: Business Research Insights

U.S. share of global AC market:                          ~25–30%
U.S. reactivated AC (all applications):                  ~$275M – $330M
Water treatment portion (~55–70%):                      ~$150M – $230M

✓ Cross-check confirms: $150M–$230M from tonnage method matches top-down derivation

Why This Market Will Grow Significantly

The $150M–$230M figure represents current reactivation volume. PFAS compliance will add substantial new demand as 4,100–6,700 systems install new GAC treatment. Each new GAC installation creates a recurring reactivation need every 6–24 months. As these systems come online (2027–2031), the reactivation market could double. Birchtech’s rjGAC facility — online late 2027 — is timed to capture this wave.

Part 6

GAC SUPPLY — Market Size for Granular Activated Carbon in Water Contaminant Removal

What This Is

Birchtech supplies GAC media to remove contaminants from water — all contaminants, not just PFAS. GAC is effective against PFAS, mercury, arsenic, VOCs, disinfection byproduct precursors, taste/odor compounds, and many other regulated and unregulated contaminants. A single GAC installation at a utility often treats for multiple contaminants simultaneously.

Total U.S. Activated Carbon Market

$752M

U.S. AC market, all applications (2024)

PS Market Research [S11]

$1,214M

U.S. AC market, alternate estimate (2024)

Polaris Market Research [S12]

42%

Water & wastewater = largest end-use segment

Both sources + Fortune BI [S13]

$107B

Total U.S. drinking water treatment need over 20 years (EPA)

EPA 7th DWINSA [S7]

[S11] PS Market Research — U.S. Activated Carbon Market
psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/us-activated-carbon-market

U.S. AC: $752M (2024), projected $1,623M by 2032 at 10.2% CAGR. Coal-based: 41.99%. Midwest: 25.55%.

[S12] Polaris Market Research — U.S. Activated Carbon Market
polarismarketresearch.com/industry-analysis/us-activated-carbon-market

U.S. AC: $1,214M (2024), 8.8% CAGR. Cites Calgon/American Water 9-year exclusive reactivation contract (Jan 2025).

[S13] Fortune Business Insights — Global Activated Carbon
fortunebusinessinsights.com/activated-carbon-market-102175

Global: $5.62B (2025), $11.9B by 2034. U.S. projected $2.0B by 2032. Water treatment = primary driver worldwide.

Birchtech’s Addressable GAC Market — Water Treatment Only

Not all activated carbon goes to water treatment. AC is also used in air purification, automotive, gold mining, and pharmaceuticals. Birchtech sells into water treatment. Here is the breakdown by customer type:

Customer Type	Annual U.S. Market	What They Need GAC For	How We Calculated
Municipal Water Utilities	$350M–$500M/yr	All regulated contaminants: PFAS, VOCs, THMs, taste/odor, arsenic, DBP precursors	Top-down: N.A. AC $1.25B (Fortune BI) × 40% water × 70–85% municipal = $350–425M base. Plus PFAS-driven growth: ~$50–75M incremental.
Power Plants (Coal, Gas, Combined Cycle)	$80M–$120M/yr	Mercury removal, wastewater treatment, condensate polishing	Grand View: power = 40%+ of N.A. AC demand ($173M). Water-side portion: 50–70% = $80–120M
Environmental Remediation (DoD, Superfund)	$40M–$60M/yr	Groundwater pump-and-treat at contaminated sites (military bases, Superfund)	GAO: DoD $9.3B future PFAS costs (GAO-25-107401). GAC media portion ~3–5% of total cleanup spend.
Industrial (Pharma, Semiconductor, Food/Bev)	$30M–$50M/yr	Ultra-pure process water, discharge compliance	N.A. non-power IEX/AC $258M (Grand View) × 12–20% GAC share
TOTAL GAC FOR WATER	$500M–$700M/yr	Birchtech’s addressable GAC supply market. Consistent with N.A. AC total of $1.25B (Fortune BI) — water treatment at 40% = ~$500M base, plus PFAS growth. Non-water AC (air, auto, mining) is the remainder.

Calculation — Total GAC for Water Contaminant Removal Municipal utilities:                $350M – $500M (PFAS compliance + existing treatment)
Power plants:                      $80M – $120M
Remediation:                       $40M – $60M
Industrial:                         $30M – $50M

Low: 350 + 80 + 40 + 30 = $500M
High: 500 + 120 + 60 + 50 = $730M → conservatively capped at $700M
(Cap applied because bottom-up should not exceed top-down: N.A. AC $1.25B × ~55% water = ~$690M)

Birchtech addressable GAC supply market: ~$500M – $700M/year

▿ Note on GAC Share of PFAS Treatment: The previous version of this report used Bluefield Research’s EU figure of “80% GAC share” for PFAS spending. This has been replaced with a top-down approach using Fortune BI’s total N.A. AC market ($1.25B). For reference: Grand View Research reports GAC held 46.9% of U.S. point-of-entry PFAS treatment systems in 2024 (Grand View), while Bluefield’s EU forecast shows 80% for centralized municipal systems. The difference reflects that POE systems (residential) use more IX, while centralized municipal treatment is more GAC-heavy. We now use the total AC market anchor to avoid this debate entirely.

GAC Supply — U.S. Water Treatment Market by Customer Type ($M, mid-point)

Part 7

IXR SUPPLY — Market Size for Ion Exchange Resins in Water Contaminant Removal

What This Is

Birchtech supplies SEA-IX™ ion exchange resins for water contaminant removal across multiple customer types. IXR removes contaminants by swapping harmful ions (PFAS, arsenic, nitrate, radioactive metals) for harmless ones. When the resin beads are full, they get replaced — creating recurring revenue.

Total N.A. Ion Exchange Resin Market

$431.5M

N.A. total IXR market, all applications (2024)

Grand View Research [S14]

58%

of global IXR demand = water treatment

Mordor Intelligence [S15]

5.8%

CAGR for heavy-metal/contaminant subsegment (fastest)

Mordor Intelligence [S15]

[S14] Grand View Research — Ion Exchange Resins Market
grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/ion-exchange-resins-market

Global IXR: $1.95B (2024). N.A. = 22.2% = ~$433M. Water treatment = 58%. Power = 40%+.

[S15] Mordor Intelligence — Ion Exchange Resins Market
mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/ion-exchange-resin-market

IXR: $2.47B (2025), $3.10B by 2030 at 4.62% CAGR. Water treatment: 58%. Heavy-metal/contaminant mitigation: fastest subsegment.

[S16] WaterWorld — GAC vs. IXR Lifecycle Cost Comparison
waterworld.com — GAC vs IXR

4 MGD plant, 100 ng/L PFAS. 30-year present worth: IXR = $13.8M vs. GAC = $22.8M. IXR 40% cheaper for this profile.

Birchtech’s Addressable IXR Market — Water Treatment by Customer Type

Customer Type	Annual U.S. Market	What They Need IXR For	How We Calculated
Municipal Water Utilities	$200M–$280M/yr	PFAS removal, arsenic, nitrate, perchlorate, heavy metals — all regulated contaminants treated by IX	PFAS IXR: Bluefield $13.5B × 12–15% ÷ 8yr = $200–250M. Plus non-PFAS municipal IX (arsenic, nitrate): ~$30–50M
Nuclear Power Plants	$50M–$70M/yr	Reactor coolant purification, condensate polishing, spent fuel pool cleanup — nuclear-grade resin, non-discretionary	94 NRC reactors × $500–750K/yr (full working in Nuclear Resin doc: NRC + SAMCO + IAEA TRS-408 + EPRI)
Coal & Gas Power Plants	$40M–$60M/yr	Boiler feedwater demineralization, condensate polishing	Nuclear Resin doc Part 5: $120–170M thermal IXR × ~30% media-only
Industrial (Pharma, Semiconductor)	$20M–$35M/yr	Ultra-pure water (deionization) for chip fabs, pharma, labs	N.A. non-power IXR ~$258M (Grand View) × 8–14% ultra-pure
TOTAL IXR FOR WATER	$310M–$445M/yr	Birchtech’s addressable IXR supply market. Consistent with $431.5M total N.A. IXR (Grand View) — water treatment is the dominant IXR application.

Calculation — Total IXR for Water Contaminant Removal Municipal utilities:                $200M – $280M (all contaminants: PFAS + arsenic + nitrate + perchlorate)
Nuclear power:                     $50M – $70M (see separate Nuclear Resin doc)
Thermal power:                     $40M – $60M
Industrial:                         $20M – $35M

Low: 200 + 50 + 40 + 20 = $310M
High: 280 + 70 + 60 + 35 = $445M
(Consistent with $431.5M total N.A. IXR from Grand View — water treatment is the dominant application for IXR)

Birchtech addressable IXR supply market: ~$310M – $445M/year

IXR Supply — U.S. Water Treatment Market by Customer Type ($M, mid-point)

Part 8

Market Context — Contaminants Treated & Competitive Landscape

8A — Contaminants Birchtech Treats

Birchtech’s Water Treatment Solutions address all of the contaminants below through GAC, IXR, and other media. This is not a separate market sizing — the market sizes in Parts 6 and 7 (GAC $500M–$700M, IXR $310M–$445M) already encompass treatment for all these contaminants combined.

Contaminant	EPA Regulation	Birchtech Treatment	Key Driver
PFAS / PFOS	MCL: 4 ppt (2024)	GAC + SEA-IX™ + rjGAC + RSSCT	Largest single driver — EPA PFAS NPDWR
Mercury	MCL: 2 ppb + MATS (air)	GAC (water) + SEA® (air)	EPA MATS + discharge permits
Arsenic	MCL: 10 ppb	GAC + IXR + adsorptive media	~3,000+ systems exceed MCL
Lead	Action level: 15 ppb (LCRI)	IXR + corrosion control	9.2M lead service lines (EPA)
Nitrate	MCL: 10 mg/L	IXR (anion exchange)	Agricultural runoff
Chromium	MCL: 100 ppb (Cr-total)	GAC + IXR	Industrial discharge
Selenium	MCL: 50 ppb	GAC + IXR	Mining/power plant discharge
VOCs (TCE, PCE, etc.)	Various MCLs (5 ppb typical)	GAC (primary treatment)	Industrial/Superfund legacy
THMs / DBPs	Stage 2 D/DBP Rule	GAC (precursor removal)	Existing regulation, universal

Birchtech’s positioning: “Beyond PFAS, there are numerous contaminants that plague our water systems in the U.S. for which Birchtech can provide GAC, other media, and water treatment solutions that can be effectively tailored and applied in those environments.” — CEO Richard MacPherson, October 2025 [B3]

8B — Competitive Landscape

The U.S. PFAS water treatment equipment market is highly consolidated. Per Frost & Sullivan / Water Online, the top three companies hold over 65% of total market revenue. Municipal utilities account for ~70% of end-user demand. Birchtech differentiates through its media-agnostic, data-driven approach — not a single-product vendor but an integrator that uses RSSCT data to select the right technology for each site.

Competitor	What They Do	Scale / Recent Activity	How Birchtech Differs
Calgon Carbon (Kuraray)	Largest U.S. GAC manufacturer + reactivation services. Virgin + reactivated carbon.	9-year exclusive contract with American Water at 50+ sites (Jan 2025). Gulf Coast reactivation expansion. “Operation Bedrock” (2025).	Birchtech’s rjGAC competes on regional reactivation + RSSCT data-driven media selection vs. Calgon’s one-brand supply model.
ARQ	Vertically integrated GAC producer (coal-to-carbon). New entrant.	Commissioned first GAC line at Red River Plant, CO (Aug 2025). 25M lbs/yr nameplate.	ARQ produces carbon from coal. Birchtech is media-agnostic and supplies what the data says works best.
Xylem / Evoqua	Full-service water treatment equipment & analytics.	Acquired Idrica (data analytics, Dec 2024). Major PFAS treatment projects.	Xylem sells equipment systems. Birchtech provides media + testing — complementary, not directly competing on equipment.
Veolia	Global water utility & treatment operator.	$35M PFAS treatment plant in Delaware (Jun 2025), 42 AC units, 100K+ people served.	Veolia operates plants. Birchtech supplies the media and testing that plants like Veolia’s need.
CarboNXT	AC manufacturer (mercury/air). Listed competitor per Birchtech.	Primarily air-side (mercury from coal plants).	Birchtech has SEA® for air + water treatment solutions. CarboNXT is air-focused.
Environmental Energy Services	Coal plant services & mercury control. Listed competitor per Birchtech.	Regional, utility services.	Birchtech’s IP portfolio (120+ patents) and patented SEA® sorbent differentiate in mercury control.

[S17] Water Online / Frost & Sullivan — PFAS Water Treatment Market Outlook (2024–2031)
wateronline.com — PFAS Market Outlook

U.S. PFAS treatment equipment market ~$90M (2024), growing at 11% CAGR. Top 3 companies hold 65%+ share. Municipal = 70% of end-user demand. Key players: Xylem, Calgon Carbon, Jacobs, Clean Harbors, Veolia.

[S18] Polaris & Mordor Intelligence — Recent Competitor Activity
polarismarketresearch.com and mordorintelligence.com

ARQ Red River Plant commissioning (Aug 2025), Calgon/American Water 9-year contract (Jan 2025), Calgon Gulf Coast reactivation expansion (2024), Xylem/Idrica acquisition (Dec 2024).

Birchtech’s competitive moat: 120+ patents worldwide (including $78M federal court judgment for IP enforcement). Patented SEA® sorbent technology. Only known integrated RSSCT + reactivation facility in North America (per SEC S-1). Media-agnostic approach (GAC, IXR, mixed media) — recommends what works, not just what they manufacture. First-mover in carbon rejuvenation with utility-validated rjGAC process.

Part 9

Total Birchtech Addressable Market — Summary & Visualization

Master Service: Water Treatment Solutions

This is Birchtech’s total addressable market across all water treatment services and media supply. It encompasses consultations, RSSCT testing, media supply (GAC + IXR), equipment supply, and rjGAC rejuvenation.

Birchtech U.S. TAM by Service Line (Annual, $M)

Service Line	What It Is	Annual U.S. Market	Primary Source	Confidence
GAC Supply	Granular activated carbon for all water contaminant removal	$500M–$700M/yr	Fortune BI ($1.25B N.A. × 40% water) + Bluefield ($13.5B PFAS)	✓ Derived
IXR Supply (SEA-IX™)	Ion exchange resins for all water contaminant removal	$310M–$445M/yr	Grand View ($431.5M N.A.) + Nuclear Resin doc (94 reactors)	✓ Derived
rjGAC Rejuvenation	Thermal rejuvenation of spent GAC — all contaminants	$150M–$230M/yr	127,500 tons × $1,200–$1,800/ton + global cross-check	✓ Derived
RSSCT Services	Rapid small-scale column testing (ND Lab)	$5M–$15M/yr	EPA systems × est. engagement pricing	▿ Estimated
WATER TREATMENT SOLUTIONS (Master TAM)		$965M–$1.39B/yr	Note: rjGAC overlaps with GAC supply — reactivation is an alternative to buying new GAC. Conservative deduplication: ~$865M–$1.24B. We present the full range with this note for transparency.

Context: This is the total addressable market — not Birchtech’s expected revenue. As a small-cap in early commercialization (first $0.9M orders, Oct 2025), near-term revenue will be a fraction of TAM. The value is showing the size and regulatory certainty of the markets being entered.

U.S. PFAS Compliance Cost Estimates — Source Comparison ($B)

Part 10

Attorney Reference Table — What Is Citable vs. Estimated

Figure	What It Means	Status	Source & Link
66,000+ systems	Subject to PFAS rule	✓ Hard Fact	EPA Fact Sheet
4,100–6,700 systems	Need treatment action	✓ Hard Fact	EPA Fact Sheet
7,000+ entry points	Need capital improvements	✓ Published	AWWA/ASDWA
$1.548B/year	EPA annual compliance cost	✓ Hard Fact	EPA Fact Sheet
$37.1–$48.3B	Capital improvements, 5 yrs	✓ Published	AWWA/B&V
$13.5B	PFAS retrofits 2023–30	✓ Industry	Bluefield Research
GAC ~47–80% of PFAS spend	GAC share of PFAS treatment	✓ Industry (range)	Bluefield EU = 80% (SWM); Grand View U.S. POE = 46.9% (GVR). EPA designates GAC as BAT.
$625B infrastructure	20-yr U.S. DW need	✓ Hard Fact	EPA 7th DWINSA
71–95M people	On PFAS groundwater	✓ Hard Fact	USGS
176M people	In PFAS communities	✓ Published	EWG
DoD: $9.3B future costs	PFAS investigation & cleanup	✓ Hard Fact	GAO-25-107401
DoD: 718 installations	Identified PFAS release sites	✓ Hard Fact	GAO-25-107401
DoD: $2.6B spent since 2017	PFAS addressing costs	✓ Hard Fact	GAO-25-107401
$12.5B + $1.185B	3M + DuPont settlements	✓ Court-approved	NRDC
94 reactors	U.S. nuclear fleet (IXR)	✓ Hard Fact	NRC.gov
$50–70M/yr (nuclear IXR)	Nuclear resin market	✓ Calculated	See Nuclear Resin doc
RSSCT: $5–15M/yr	RSSCT testing services market	▿ Estimated	Derived (this doc, Part 4)
rjGAC: $150–230M/yr	GAC reactivation, all contaminants	✓ Derived	127,500 tons × $1,200–$1,800/ton (Part 5)
GAC Supply: $500–700M/yr	GAC media for all water treatment	✓ Derived	Fortune BI ($1.25B N.A.) + Bluefield ($13.5B) (Part 6)
IXR Supply: $310–445M/yr	IXR media for all water treatment	✓ Derived	Grand View ($431.5M N.A.) + Nuclear doc (Part 7)
Master TAM: $965M–$1.39B/yr	Water Treatment Solutions (all services)	✓ Derived	Sum of above (Part 9, with overlap note)

▿ PR/IR Guidance:
• Cite EPA/AWWA/USGS figures directly — government/institutional facts
• Flag Bluefield as “according to Bluefield Research” — respected but proprietary
• Flag RSSCT and rjGAC market sizes as “company estimates based on EPA compliance data”
• Never claim TAM as expected revenue — clearly distinguish TAM from near-term opportunity